Several months ago I wrote about the reasons why the autumn of 2024 could be the best time for China to invade Taiwan. Weather and tides, the U.S. election, and the ongoing wars between Ukraine and Russia and Israel and Iran were some of the top considerations. In late October, the outlook for Taiwan seems bleak. Videos like these (all from the last week) could give you an idea why:
China-Taiwan Tensions: Taiwanese Official Warns Drills Are China’s Test For Attack
Taiwan Attack Prep? China Unveils Giant Sea Bulldozer After Huge Troop-Carrier Drone | PLA | War
Tension At South China Sea: Tensions Continue To Escalate In Taiwan Strait | Newspoint | WION
China-Taiwan Escalations Continue To Worsen As Both The Sides Draw Fire Against Each Other
Taiwan Invasion Beginning Any Time Now? Xi Jinping’s Open ‘War’ Order As China Army Encircles
Xi Jinping Getting Ready To Attack Taiwan? Asks Military To Prepare For War
China Is Waiting For This Before They Invade Taiwan
China’s ‘Secret’ Taiwan Plan Revealed? Xi May Tread This Path To Avoid Confrontation With U.S.
Taiwan Aims To Boost Stockpiles of Food in Preparation for Chinese Blockade｜TaiwanPlus News
Taiwan Invasion: Is Xi Jinping Ready to Strike?
All those videos focus on the readiness levels of China and Taiwan. But it is the American response – the giant ally that can defend Taiwan – that really decides whether or not an invasion will occur. China has wanted to invade Taiwan ever since 1949, when the Nationalists lost China’s civil war to the Communists and fled to Taiwan.
At the time China was too weak to launch an invasion. Over the decades their military has grown much stronger, but not enough to overcome the United States. I suspect that the Biden administration and family members might have been paid by China to look the other way and delay coming to Taiwan’s aid. Others suggest the opposite, that Biden would protect Taiwan but that Trump might not. An article in The Atlantic yesterday says: “Donald Trump was right when he warned at the Republican National Convention in July that China is “circling Taiwan” and that a “growing specter of conflict” hangs over the island. But his supposed concern hasn’t stopped him from signaling to Beijing that he might not intervene militarily if China launches an invasion.” Maybe no American president wants to be at war with Russia and China (and Iran) simultaneously.
Don’t we have to defend Taiwan? If not to protect freedom and democracy, then to defend production of over 90% of the world’s high end computer chips? TSMC makes the chips that allow AI to develop, and for electronics and vehicles to function. Without TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor)’s advanced chips, I have often heard, technology could be set back a few decades.
BUT – the backup plan, TSMC’s Arizona facility, is now online: TSMC’s Chip Plant In Phoenix Achieves Higher Yields Than Taiwan Which means that losing Taiwan is now an acceptable loss. An American president may once have rushed to intervene to defend democracy and freedom. A president might now say this is an internal Chinese matter and we aren’t sending American boys to die in Asia again. Both Biden and Trump have reasons not to get America involved. And even if the world is stable and the U.S. election goes fairly, smoothly, and calmly (unlikely) we will still have a lame duck presidency in November, with Biden just waiting to dump America’s problems on the next president – not to get involved in WWIII. I think the next few days, weeks, and months are a very dangerous time for Taiwan to be counting on America as an ally if China moves to take Taiwan soon.
Dragon’s Prey: Will China Invade Taiwan in 2024?
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